On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the pound on Tuesday and returned to the resistance level of 1.3454–1.3458. Today, the pair has every chance of consolidating above this zone, which would allow traders to expect further growth toward the next resistance level of 1.3526–1.3557. A rebound from the 1.3454–1.3458 level would favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of the decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3397.

The wave picture remains bearish, despite how strange that may sound. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the last upward wave failed to break above the previous high. Thus, the bears still retain the initiative in the market, although they may lose it in the near future. In my view, the 2026 bearish impulse has already run its course, and only geopolitical developments can prevent the bulls from extending their advance. Geopolitics, however, remains contradictory.

Tuesday's news background did not allow the bears to continue their sluggish attack. The only notable report of the day, the JOLTS job openings report, was unfavorable for the dollar, while geopolitical developments unexpectedly began to improve. Donald Trump frequently speaks about various hypothetical negotiations and agreements, making it difficult to take all of his statements at face value. However, today the U.S. president said that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as today. So far, media outlets have not confirmed this information, and Iran denied any negotiations with the United States as recently as yesterday. Nevertheless, according to Trump, the final agreement will be concluded between the United States, Iran, and Oman. It is still impossible to know how long any new agreement would remain in force before being violated, or what its actual terms would be. Therefore, there are still few reasons for optimism. However, if Trump's information is confirmed, it will not necessarily benefit the dollar. Oil prices could continue to decline in this scenario, significantly reducing the risk of faster inflation in the United States over the coming months. As a result, the Federal Reserve may soften its hawkish stance even further.

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair advanced to the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level before rebounding from it. This rebound suggests a potential decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3409. A consolidation above the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow traders to anticipate continued growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 1.3538. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category of traders became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculative traders decreased by 2,824, while short positions increased by 6,429. The current balance between long and short positions stands at approximately 61,000 versus 126,000. The gap, and the bears' advantage, continues to narrow gradually. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestioned, but the changing news background has begun to challenge that view.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound. In the near term, however, everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States collapsed before they had truly begun. There is also no guarantee that they will resume anytime soon.

U.S. and UK Economic Calendar:

United States

• ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
• ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for August 5 contains two releases that I consider sufficiently important. As a result, macroeconomic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3458 resistance level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.3397 and 1.3348. Long positions may be considered if the pair consolidates above the 1.3454–1.3458 level, with an upward target of 1.3526–1.3557.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3140 to 1.3557 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.