The GBP/USD pair reversed after five attempts to secure a position below the two most recent bearish swings. As a result, a liquidity sweep occurred. Recall that a liquidity sweep serves as a warning for traders about a possible price reversal in the opposite direction. It is not a pattern that can be used to open trades, but after a trend change, patterns may form that can later be used for entering positions.

However, the bulls' attack may end before it even begins. Yesterday, a bearish signal was formed for the euro. If the euro begins to follow through on that signal, it will likely drag the British pound down with it.

Today the last important U.S. report of the month was released. Of course, economic statistics should not be reduced only to Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and inflation. However, these three indicators have played a key role in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in recent years.

Inflation in the United States remained unchanged in February, so this report provided neither support nor resistance for the dollar. Market attention is once again shifting toward oil and geopolitics.

At the moment, there are no bullish patterns, and the price is unlikely to return to imbalance 16 soon to provide traders with the required signal on a second attempt. In my view, if no new escalation occurs in the Middle East over the next few days, demand for the dollar will continue to decline.

Over the past seven days, bears have attacked much more weakly than before, even though the war in Iran continues and energy prices remain high. I also marked on the chart one weak bearish imbalance that could theoretically trigger a market reaction. At the moment, this imbalance coincides with an imbalance on EUR/USD.

The bullish trend in the pound remains intact. Therefore, as long as the price stays above 1.3012, I would focus more on bullish signals. The pound's decline could still be strong, but bears now need new reasons for fresh attacks. The mere fact of war is no longer enough to support the dollar.

Last week the market ignored U.S. statistics and is currently unwilling to sell the dollar in favor of other currencies. However, this situation will not last forever.

The news background on Wednesday was weak despite the U.S. inflation report. The report itself did not show anything particularly interesting—the expectations of traders matched reality. No other significant economic data was released during the day.

In the United States, the overall informational background still suggests that long-term expectations for the dollar remain negative. The conflict between Iran and the United States has not significantly changed that outlook.

For the U.S. dollar, the situation remains difficult in the long term but positive in the short term. The key point is that positivity exists only in the short term.

U.S. labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they encourage. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Military actions by Donald Trump, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, criminal proceedings initiated against Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving U.S. elites connected to Jeffrey Epstein, the possibility of Trump's impeachment by the end of the year, and the likelihood that Republicans could lose elections all contribute to a broader picture of political and structural crisis in the United States.

In my opinion, bulls have everything they need to resume their offensive in 2026.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive informational background for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. Bearish patterns could theoretically be used to consider short positions, but personally I doubt the correctness of such a decision. I believe the recent decline of the pair was, to some extent, the result of an unfortunate combination of circumstances.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

United States

• Building Permits (12:30 UTC)
• Housing Starts (12:30 UTC)
• Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

On March 12, the economic calendar contains three relatively minor events. The influence of the informational background on market sentiment on Thursday may therefore be very limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Advice for Traders

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish. At the moment there are no active bullish patterns. There is only a bearish imbalance, to which the price must first return and produce a reaction before traders can consider a potential opportunity to open short positions.

It is also worth noting that the pound's decline over the past few weeks has been so strong largely due to unfortunate circumstances. If Donald Trump had not repeatedly promised to attack Iran, had not sent warships to the Persian Gulf, and had not eventually started a war, we would likely not have seen such a strong rise in the dollar.

I believe this decline could end just as unexpectedly as it began.

A possible starting point for a bullish offensive this week could be a liquidity sweep below the lows at 1.3341 and 1.3310.