Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of 1.3635 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that this was the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 12 points.

The lack of economic data from the United Kingdom led buyers to attempt to return to the market, but they encountered difficulties almost immediately. Without fresh domestic data, the pound lacks its own fundamental drivers. In their absence, the pair became dependent on the technical picture, where buyers' initiative quickly weakened. The fact that the attempted rise stalled near the middle of the channel suggests that there are currently more sellers willing to sell at the current highs than buyers willing to buy. This balance of forces leaves GBP/USD vulnerable to a further downward correction, as it is difficult for the pound to hold its gains without an influx of fresh demand or a weakening of the dollar.

In the second half of the day, the direction of the pound will be determined by the U.S. economic agenda, as there are no significant domestic catalysts for the British currency. The focus will be on the Consumer Confidence Index, new home sales, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consumer confidence reflects Americans' sentiment toward the economy, new home sales indicate demand in the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector, while the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index provides insight into manufacturing activity in the region. Through these channels, the data affects the strength of the dollar. Strong figures could lead to a more substantial rise in the dollar against risk-sensitive assets, putting pressure on GBP/USD, while weak data would support the British currency through a weaker U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3639 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3661 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3661, I will close the long position and open a short position, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. Further gains in the pound as part of the prevailing trend can be expected today only if U.S. data is weak. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3627 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3639 and 1.3661 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3627 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3608, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong pressure on the pound is expected to return if U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3639 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3627 and 1.3608 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.