Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to advance yesterday following weak U.S. labor market data, which sustained demand for risk-sensitive assets and pushed expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy further into the future.

Bitcoin briefly broke above the $62,000 level for the first time in July after data showed that the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs, well below the consensus forecast of 110,000–114,000, while May's figure was revised downward from 172,000 to 129,000. However, the situation is not as straightforward as it may seem.

The weak employment data immediately affected expectations for the Fed's interest rate path. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike by September dropped from approximately 65% to 50% within minutes of the report's release, triggering buying activity across the cryptocurrency market. The logic is simple and familiar from previous episodes: a weaker labor market reduces the case for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, thereby delaying the prospect of more aggressive policy action.

However, as noted above, it is important to view this rebound in the proper context. Despite yesterday's gains, Bitcoin has declined by more than 30% during the first six months of 2026, and the cryptocurrency market as a whole remains under pressure following a prolonged period of outflows from spot ETFs, including a seven-week streak totaling $7.8 billion and a record 30-day outflow of $6.35 billion. Weak employment data provides the market with temporary relief and changes interest rate expectations, but it does not eliminate the underlying structural headwinds. This week, Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000, while BlackRock reduced its Bitcoin holdings by nearly 100,000 coins over the past two months. A single weak labor market report may improve sentiment for a day, but a sustained trend reversal will require much more than one disappointing payrolls report.

The short-term trading strategy and trading conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry level of $61,900, targeting a move to $62,400. Around $62,400, I intend to close long positions and immediately open short positions on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin may also be bought from the lower boundary at $61,500 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $61,900 and $62,400.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches the entry level of $61,500, targeting a decline to $61,000. Around $61,000, I intend to close short positions and immediately open long positions on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin may also be sold from the upper boundary at $61,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level, targeting a decline toward $61,500 and $61,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry level of $1,721, targeting a move to $1,746. Around $1,746, I intend to close long positions and immediately open short positions on a rebound. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above the zero line.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum may also be bought from the lower boundary at $1,707 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below this level, targeting a recovery toward $1,721 and $1,746.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry level of $1,707, targeting a decline to $1,685. Around $1,685, I intend to close short positions and immediately open long positions on a rebound. Before selling on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day Moving Average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below the zero line.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum may also be sold from the upper boundary at $1,721 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above this level, targeting a decline toward $1,707 and $1,685.