Trade review and trading advice for the euro

The price test at 1.1676 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

Despite weak eurozone GDP growth data for the first quarter of this year, pressure on the euro did not return. The figures came in below economists' expectations, with the economy growing only by 0.1%. This slowdown casts doubt on the sustainability of the recovery seen at the end of last year and raises questions about future prospects. The main factors behind such modest results were weakening industrial production and declining consumer activity. An energy deficit, exacerbated by geopolitical risks, continues to negatively affect production chains, while inflationary pressure is eroding household purchasing power. Under these conditions, expectations for further economic growth appear rather pessimistic.

Next, market participants will focus on U.S. first-quarter GDP growth. A relatively strong increase is expected, which could reverse the market and lead to a decline in EUR/USD. Equally important are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index figures, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1699 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1746. At 1.1746, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is only possible after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1681 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1699 and 1.1746 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1681 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1637, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure will return today if strong U.S. GDP data is released. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1699 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1681 and 1.1637 can then be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – target price for taking profit or manual exit (above this level further growth is unlikely)
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – target price for taking profit or manual exit (below this level further decline is unlikely)
• MACD indicator – entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important note: Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders from the outset.