Bitcoin continues to trade inside a sideways channel after a sharp surge in mid?August, while Ethereum is showing some signs of strength. However, this absolutely does not mean that the downtrend that began last year is over. On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is range-bound between $60,000 and $82,500, while the weekly timeframe still shows a downward trend. So, no matter what people say, we do not believe a new bull trend began over the summer. Most analysts still refer to the "magical" four?year cycle, according to which Bitcoin should finish its year?long downward correction this autumn and start forming a new bullish trend. But the four?year cycle is not the Pyramid of Khufu — it is not eternal.

Meanwhile, investor Jordi Visser said Bitcoin may stop correlating with global macroeconomic indicators and become a much more independent, idiosyncratic instrument. Visser suggested that advances in artificial intelligence could "unlink" Bitcoin from indicators such as liquidity, central bank interest rates, and monetary aggregates. In the past, Bitcoin's price was highly dependent on the Fed cycle and monetary policy. However, the latest Fed tightening and the announcement of further rate hikes did not cause "digital gold" to fall. Visser hypothesized that digital innovation could begin evolving independently of economic cycles.

The analyst also said that AI development is a positive factor for Bitcoin and digital assets. In his view, as AI advances, digital assets will become more deeply integrated into the existing financial system. He also believes AI agents will eventually evolve from simple helper bots into full economic actors that autonomously make decisions about purchases, payments, and other financial operations. Digital wallets will be the interface using these agents. Thus, digital assets — particularly Bitcoin and Ether — still have what they need for a long-term uptrend. And the AI sector is a key ally of cryptocurrencies, not an enemy.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend despite the strong mid?August rally. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), although that level has essentially already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend is finished. The recent rise in the leading crypto looks weak as a corrective move and is not a sufficient reason to open long positions. Liquidity could be swept from the $82,850 high, which might trigger a new leg down. On the 4?hour timeframe, a new descent could begin with targets at $78,400 and $75,600, since a new deviation may form near the upper band of the sideways channel.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

The daily technical picture for Ethereum has completely changed in just a few days. Ethereum may now start a new uptrend. However, traders should base decisions on the weekly chart, where Ethereum could head toward $4,800 — the upper band of a five?year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the nearest bearish FVG has been filled, but that FVG belongs to the previous trend. If it triggers a market reaction, it is likely to be corrective. Remember that Etheruem's moves largely depend on Bitcoin. And Bitcoin still may begin a new leg down within the 4?hour sideways channel and a new downward leg on the daily sideways channel.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.