Lihat juga
12.08.2026 06:41 PM
The GBP/USD pair continues to rise, which I consider fully justified. Last week's reports on the US economy and labor market put an end to the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive month, but this time it not only came in at a low level but also turned negative. The number of jobs in the US economy is no longer simply growing slowly; it is declining. A similar situation occurred several times last year, when the Fed had to cut interest rates three times to prevent a further deterioration in the labor market. In recent weeks, there has been extensive speculation in the market that high inflation would force the Fed to raise rates. Kevin Warsh also spoke about excessive inflation that needs to be brought back to the target level. However, as expected, inflation is not the only factor that matters. Given the current Nonfarm Payrolls figures, I do not expect monetary policy tightening. This is negative for the dollar. The latest US inflation report has made FOMC monetary policy tightening even less likely. Recall that the market began pricing in a rate hike two months ago, and now it is being hit by a new wave of disappointment every week. I believe the dollar's decline will continue. Unlike the euro, the pound does not face significant obstacles above. On the contrary, the pound has formed a bullish signal and can continue to rise with relatively little resistance.
As I have already mentioned, geopolitics is no longer providing support for the dollar, as new escalations in the conflict occur approximately once every two weeks, while negotiations between the United States and Iran have reached a complete deadlock. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It remains unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may be able to agree with Oman on the terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would that resolve the conflict with the United States and lift the US blockade of the strait?
In the first half of the week, oil rose to $92 per barrel. If the situation begins to develop according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices will continue to rise and retest the March–May highs. In this case, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom would begin accelerating again. If, however, the situation develops according to the optimistic scenario, oil prices will return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, Fed tightening may not be necessary, while the Bank of England is already not facing the problem of high inflation. At present, however, it is the Fed that cannot bring itself to take a hawkish step, while the Bank of England, by contrast, would be prepared to tighten monetary policy only if inflation begins to accelerate—which there are currently no signs of.
The chart analysis shows a renewed advance by the bulls. At present, traders have two bullish imbalances (24 and 25), within which buying opportunities can be considered. Imbalance 24 has already produced a bullish signal that traders could have acted on by opening long positions. There are currently no bearish patterns.
The economic news background on Wednesday once again favored the bulls. The inflation report did not surprise traders, but at the same time, it indicated a second consecutive decline, thereby reducing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening. The US dollar came under renewed pressure.
The overall news background remains such that, in the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the US dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this. The possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026 has not changed this either. Geopolitical developments prompted the market to recall the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The likelihood of FOMC monetary policy tightening has declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the US currency. Therefore, in my view, any dollar appreciation is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.
On August 13, the economic calendar contains two releases, both of secondary importance. The impact of the economic news background on market sentiment on Thursday is likely to be weak or nonexistent.
The long-term outlook for sterling remains bullish. After liquidity was taken from the two most recent swings, the bulls began an advance, followed by a corrective pullback and another bullish move. This week, I expect the pound to continue rising, as the US labor market reports came in weak and the probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening is now extremely low. The US inflation report further undermined traders' expectations of Fed tightening. If the bears launch another advance, bearish patterns will be needed to consider short positions, but there are currently none. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24. The upward targets for sterling are the highs from July 15 and May 1—1.3557 and 1.3656, respectively, with the first of these levels already almost reached. The 1.3557 swing should be monitored closely, as liquidity could be taken from this level. If this happens, the pair could decline somewhat.
