The GBP/USD pair continues to decline within a bullish trend. The only active pattern that may currently be useful for traders is bearish imbalance 16. A bearish imbalance within a bullish trend raises serious doubts about whether it is worth trading this imbalance with short positions. First, this imbalance needs to be tested and produce a price reaction; only then can the feasibility of opening short positions be assessed.

In my opinion, however, the bears have extracted the maximum benefit from the news background over the past month. I believe the bearish move may end soon, as even the factor of escalating tensions between Iran and the United States has already been priced in by traders. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair (which is the main pair in this tandem) has no bearish imbalance. Therefore, there is little reason to expect further decline in the euro. I would treat imbalance 16 on the pound with great caution.

Today it became known why Donald Trump is delaying an attack on Iran. For two or three weeks now, we have been hearing threats directed at Tehran, but the key order has still not been given. Meanwhile, one of the U.S. aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf has reportedly run out of toilet paper. This is not a joke. It has become known that Trump wants Israel to strike Iranian facilities first, which would provoke a retaliatory strike from Tehran, after which the United States would have grounds for its own attack. The issue is that the White House does not know how to justify to voters the need to attack a sovereign state. Republican popularity is declining, and experts expect Trump's party to lose in the November elections. If America becomes involved in a full-scale war and Iran retaliates not only against U.S. military bases but also against the United States itself (which Trump has called a sponsor of terrorism), how will this be explained to American taxpayers?

The bullish trend in the pound remains intact in any case. Therefore, as long as it holds (above the 1.3012 level), I would focus more on bullish signals. The pound's decline could be significant, but it could also end at any moment. In any case, the only currently active imbalance 16 has not yet formed any signal. There are no grounds for new trades at this time.

There was no significant news background on Thursday. The pound is moving toward imbalance 16, which remains the only area of interest for traders in the near term. For now, it is necessary to wait for signals or new patterns to form.

In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, only further weakness of the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite complex. U.S. labor market statistics continue to disappoint more often than they encourage. Three of the last four FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions. Trump's military rhetoric, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Iran, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, another government shutdown, and the scandal involving U.S. elites related to the Epstein case all contribute to the current picture of political and structural crisis in the country. In my opinion, the bulls have everything needed to continue advancing throughout 2026.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive news background for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound. Too many risk factors continue to weigh on the dollar. Bearish patterns may offer opportunities to consider short positions, but personally I would not recommend this to traders. I view the recent decline of the pair as partly coincidental.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On February 27, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday is expected to be extremely weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The overall picture for the pound remains bullish, although the short-term outlook has turned bearish. There are currently no active bullish patterns. There is only bearish imbalance 16, toward which price must first retrace and produce a reaction before traders can consider potential short positions.

It should be noted that the pound's decline over the past few weeks has been strong enough to transform the bullish picture into a bearish one due to a series of unfavorable circumstances. If Donald Trump had not repeatedly promised to attack Iran and sent military ships to the Persian Gulf, we likely would not have seen such a sharp decline in the pound. I believe this decline may end as unexpectedly as it began. In my view, the trend in recent weeks has not truly shifted to bearish.