The US economy is transitioning to a phase of accelerated structural growth, largely fueled by investments in artificial intelligence. According to UBS forecasts, this growth remains narrowly focused and relies on the technology sector, while other industries show signs of stagnation.

According to UBS economist Jonathan Pingle, the economic expansion in 2026 is driven by high demand from affluent households. "Investment is concentrated in tech, and the stock market's boost to upper-income household spending," the expert emphasized. Other market segments appear weak, which poses a risk to the overall growth rate if the AI industry experiences a slowdown.

Additional support will come from fiscal measures under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the anticipated easing of monetary policy. The bank predicts two interest rate cuts in 2026, which would bring the Federal Reserve's target range to 3.00%-3.25% by December. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation remains at 3%, limiting the regulator's room for maneuver.

Uncertainty has increased with the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, whose nomination was sent to the Senate in March 2026. Rising energy prices and new import tariffs are exerting pressure on real household incomes. UBS warns that market volatility and trade disputes remain major obstacles to a long-term optimistic scenario.