See also
29.09.2026 08:52 AM
According to Reuters, international mediators, including Qatari representatives, plan to hold a new round of talks with the US and Iran early this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Qatari diplomats remain in the United States to discuss a revised version of Iran's previously presented proposal for a seven-day ceasefire, first presented on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
CNN, citing a US source, reports that President Donald Trump has expressed willingness to ease sanctions and unfreeze Iranian financial assets in exchange for meaningful progress on nuclear issues. The US negotiating team is reportedly led by Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, along with Vice President J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. While the sides are holding "positive and constructive discussions" through intermediaries, US officials stress that any agreement is impossible without full resolution of the core nuclear issues.
Notably, both Iranian and US officials are highly pessimistic about the prospect of concluding a deal before the US midterm elections on November 3. Last week's talks in New York on the margins of the UN General Assembly produced only minor progress, and both sides face major obstacles and deep disagreements. Sources familiar with Tehran's position say Iranian authorities see a significant likelihood of a new escalation of the military conflict immediately after the US vote. US negotiators likewise warn that the chances of a breakthrough are very small, though formal, intermediary-led dialogue continues.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg, citing informed sources, reports that Saudi Arabia has fully resumed overseas export shipments via the key East–West pipeline after successful repair work. Shipments to the Yanbu Red Sea port were halted on September 13 following drone attacks, forcing state oil company Saudi Aramco to run staged pressure tests before final restart.
Exports have now resumed at large scale. The pipeline's capacity is 7 million barrels per day, of which roughly 2 million barrels are directed to Saudi refineries and the remainder available for export. Restoring this artery is critical for global supplies, serving as the main alternative to the blocked Strait of Hormuz route.
Yields on US government bonds resumed aggressive increases in Monday trading amid oil's renewed rise of more than 3%. As a result, yields rose to:
Traders are pricing further Fed tightening to curb inflationary pressure from higher fuel: CME FedWatch places the probability of a rate hike at the October meeting at 70.0%, up from 57.6% a week earlier.
This follows the Fed's first rate increase in three years at its September meeting. However, Stephen Major of Tradition notes that US inflation expectations remain relatively stable and well below May's peaks, so the rise in nominal Treasury yields mainly reflects higher real rates and a repricing of the policy path rather than a sudden jump in inflation risk.
Political and economic pressure in the United States continues to mount ahead of the midterm Congressional elections. President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — the weakest among US leaders before midterms. At the macro level, corporate insolvencies are surging:
The hardest-hit sectors were industrials (50 firms), consumer goods and services (35 bankruptcies) and healthcare (26 companies). Tightening financial conditions and slowing consumer activity drove heavy sell-offs across key sectors of the US stock market.
McDonald's shares hit their lowest level since October 2022 (-11.18% over four weeks and -22.75% over 12 months). PepsiCo reached its weakest level since June 2020 (-9.43% on month, -9.32% on year). In tech and media, Netflix fell to a nine-week low (-13.87% over four weeks and -42.05% year), and Salesforce hit a four-week low. Industrial giant Boeing also plunged to a 25-week low (-9.29% over the past four weeks and -13.05% year). Tech names recorded declines as well: Alphabet (-0.7%), Microsoft (-2.2%), Amazon (-1.4%), Meta (-3.1%) and Tesla (-1.4%).
Notably, the broad decline in major US stock indices did not include Nvidia. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones absorbed the impact of another oil shock and hopes of a US-Iran deal, energy outperformed. Market concentration in US stocks reached a record: the two largest S&P 500 companies — Nvidia and Apple — now account for 15% of its combined market cap:
Against this backdrop, Nvidia announced a major industry initiative — a two-component Open Agent Safety Platform designed to control AI agents in real time and prevent malfunctions. The platform includes OpenShell for setting and enforcing agent access rules, and Nvidia Sentry, an AI-driven service that monitors agent behavior and isolates suspicious systems within milliseconds.
Nvidia claims the technology could have prevented the recent high-profile Hugging Face breach tied to OpenAI models, positioning the product as a tool for safely stress-testing the most powerful AI systems without slowing development. As a result, Nvidia outperformed the market, rising 3.2%. The company also approved an additional $150 billion for its buyback program, bringing the total to a record $235 billion amid massive industry AI spending.
29 Sep, 02:01 / United Kingdom / BRC Retail Price Index (leading) for September / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 1.5% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – volatile Retail price inflation in the UK accelerated in August to the highest level since February 2024. Pass-through to retail prices was driven by:
* rising energy, commodity and import costs;
* food price inflation rising to 2.8%;
* and a jump in non-food prices due to demand for chips and storage for AI.
Retail price inflation is expected to remain at 1.5% in September. Persistently high price growth will support the pound and increase GBP/USD volatility.
29 Sep, 04:30 / Australia / Household spending in August / prev.: 6.1% / actual: 7.0% / forecast: 6.4% / AUD/USD – down
Annual household spending growth in Australia accelerated in July, showing the fastest pace since summer 2023. Consumer sector dynamics have remained well above the long-run norm of 4.73%. In August, analysts expect spending growth to cool. A slowdown in consumer activity will weigh on the Australian dollar and push AUD/USD lower.
29 Sep, 07:30 & 08:30 / Australia / RBA decision and press conference / prev.: 4.35% / actual: 4.35% / forecast: 4.60% / AUD/USD – up
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. The decision reflected:
* persistent excess demand and a slow return of inflation to target;
* inflationary risks from events in the Middle East and oil prices;
* and rising corporate investment in AI and data centers.
Analysts expect a rate hike at the next meeting. Further tightening would support the Australian dollar and push AUD/USD higher.
29 Sep, 12:00 / Eurozone / Economic Sentiment Indicator for September / prev.: 97.1 pts / actual: 98.4 pts / forecast: 99.0 pts / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone economic sentiment index rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, reaching a year-to-date high. Improvement was driven by
In September, analysts expect a further rise. Strengthening optimism should support the euro and push EUR/USD higher.
29 Sep, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer Expectations Index for September / prev.: 30.4 pts Actual: 33.0 pts / forecast: 40.0 pts / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone consumer expectations index rose in August, well above its historical average (24.68 pts). The indicator points to gradually improving household confidence in personal finances and prices. Markets expect further gains in September. Rising household confidence will support the euro and lift EUR/USD.
29 Sep, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial Confidence (leading) for September / prev.: -6.1 pts / actual: -5.3 pts / forecast: -4.8 pts / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone industrial confidence improved in August to the highest levels since spring 2023. Improvement was supported by more optimistic production outlooks from business leaders and lower finished-goods inventories. Analysts expect pessimism to ease further in September, which would support the euro and push EUR/USD up.
29 Sep, 16:00 / US / S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July / prev.: 1.6% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 2.2% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
Annual home price growth across 20 major US cities accelerated to 2.1% in June, beating expectations. Drivers included the strongest rise since June 2025, with Chicago (+6.9%), New York (+4.8%) and Cleveland (+4.1%) leading, while Western and Sun Belt markets cooled (Seattle -2.0%, Las Vegas -1.9%). Real prices have fallen for the 13th month, adjusted for inflation. July is expected to see further acceleration in house prices, which would support the dollar and lift the USD index.
29 Sep, 16:00 / US / FHFA House Price Index for July / prev.: 2.4% / actual: 2.3% / forecast: 2.2% / USDX – down
Annual growth in US single-family home prices slowed to 2.3% in June, well below the long-run average of about 4.48%. The market showed weakening price pressure in mortgage-backed housing. Analysts expect further moderation in July, which would weigh on the dollar and push the USD index down.
29 Sep, 17:00 / US / JOLTS Job Openings for August / prev.: 7.182 mln / actual: 7.271 mln / forecast: 7.240 mln / USDX – down
Job openings rose by 89k to 7.271 million in July. Changes were driven by:
Overall hires remained steady at 5.1 mln and separations at 3.1 mln. Analysts forecast a decline in openings in August; cooling labor demand would weaken the dollar and push USDX lower.
29 Sep, 17:00 / US / Quits (voluntary resignations) for August / prev.: 3.213 mln / actual: 3.056 mln / forecast: 3.000 mln / USDX – up
Voluntary quits fell by 157k to 3.056 million in July. The drop was led by fewer quits in hospitality (-86k) and business services (-77k) and a large fall in the West (-265k). The quits rate remains near 1.9%, close to 2020 lows. Analysts expect further declines in August. Falling worker confidence would weigh on the dollar and push USDX down.
29 Sep, 17:30 / US / Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for September / prev.: 6.6 pts / actual: 4.2 pts / forecast: 1.0 pt / USDX – down
The Dallas Fed services index fell to 4.2 in August but remained positive. The sector was characterized by weaker revenue expectations (down to 6.6) and a sharp drop in outlooks to 3.0, rising input-price pressure for raw materials (35.6), while selling-price growth slowed (8.9), a retreat in the employment index to 0.8 and softer capex, but a jump in the future activity index to 18.6. Markets expect the services index to cool further in September; weaker services activity would weigh on the dollar.
29 Sep, 23:30 / US / API Crude Oil Stocks for week to Sept 18 / prev.: 7.140 mln / actual: 1.786 mln / forecast: – / Brent – down
US commercial crude inventories rose by 1.786 million barrels for the week to Sept. 18. The market saw a 2.082 million barrel build at the Cushing hub, gasoline stocks fell by 2.16 million barrels, and distillates by 2.164 million barrels, and 400k barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (to 284.6 million). Rising commercial crude stocks will continue to pressure Brent prices.
Sept 30, 03:00 / United Kingdom / Motor vehicle production in August / prev.: 3.2% / actual: -1.2% / forecast: 1.0% / GBP/USD – up
UK motor vehicle production plunged in July due to weak external supplies. The fall in output was driven by: weaker export shipments to the EU, US, and Asia; a one-third collapse in commercial vehicle production; and a local rise in electric and hybrid vehicle production (+6.8%). Analysts expect vehicle production to recover in August. A rebound in auto output would support the pound and push GBP/USD higher.
Sept 30, 02:50 / Japan / Retail sales in August / prev.: 0.6% / actual: 4.0% / forecast: 3.3% / USD/JPY – up
Annual retail sales growth in Japan accelerated in July, marking the fourth month of positive momentum. The consumer sector was characterized by a sharp rise in motor vehicle sales (+16.2%), recovering demand for equipment, general purpose goods and food, and a fall in apparel and accessories turnover (-6.6%). In August, analysts expect retail growth to slow. Cooling consumer activity would weigh on the yen and push USD/JPY higher.
Sept 30, 02:50 / Japan / Industrial production in August / prev.: 4.9% / actual: 3.9% / forecast: 3.7% / USD/JPY – up
Annual industrial production growth in Japan slowed in July and remains below the long-run average of 4.37%. The indicator points to a gradual weakening in industrial activity. Markets expect further moderation in August. Slower industrial growth would weaken the yen and lift USD/JPY.
Sept 30, 04:30 / Australia / Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY for August / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.5% / forecast: 4.0% / AUD/USD – up
Annual consumer inflation in Australia slowed in July to the lowest pace since late last year. Price developments were driven by lower goods inflation (to a multi-month low of 3.2%) and subdued services inflation; easing price pressure on housing (+5.0%), electricity and food; and faster transport price growth (+1.6%).
In August, analysts expect CPI to accelerate to 4.0%. Renewed price pressures would raise the odds of RBA tightening, supporting the Australian dollar and pushing AUD/USD up.
Sept 30, 04:30 / Australia / Building approvals in August / prev.: 9.5% / actual: 9.0% / forecast: 12.5% / AUD/USD – up
Dwelling approvals in Australia showed continued expansion in July, well above the long-run norm of 2.57%, signaling stable developer activity. Markets expect a marked acceleration in approvals in August. A stronger construction cycle would support the Australian dollar and lift AUD/USD.
Sept 30, 04:30 / China / Manufacturing PMI (leading) for September / prev.: 49.2 pts / actual: 49.8 pts / forecast: 50.1 pts / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's manufacturing PMI rose in August, showing a slowdown in the rate of contraction. Industry was driven by a return of output (50.4) and new orders (50.6) to expansionary territory, staff reductions and lower commodity inventories, rising price pressure on commodities and finished goods, and weakening business sentiment to a five-month low. Analysts expect the manufacturing PMI to move into expansion in September. A manufacturing recovery would support oil demand and strengthen the yuan.
Sept 30, 04:30 / China / Official non-manufacturing PMI for September (leading) / prev.: 49.0 pts / actual: 49.0 pts / forecast: 49.6 pts / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's non-manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in August, staying below the 50-point threshold. The sector was weighed down by subdued services activity, construction weakening to 46.9, new orders falling to 44.1 amid weak demand, and employment at 45.4 with high costs. Analysts expect the non-manufacturing PMI to rise to 49.6 in September. Improvement would support oil and the yuan.
Sept 30, 04:45 / China / Manufacturing PMI (RatingDog) for September (leading) / prev.: 50.9 pts / actual: 51.5 pts / forecast: 51.7 pts / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
RatingDog's manufacturing PMI rose, showing an acceleration in expansion. Improvements were driven by a fifteenth consecutive month of new order growth led by rising export sales, the strongest production gains in three months, increased purchasing activity with stable employment, and the first decline in output prices this year amid rising input costs. Analysts expect further gains to 51.7 in September, which would support oil and the yuan.
Sept 30, 04:45 / China / Services PMI (RatingDog) for September (leading) / prev.: 50.4 pts / actual: 51.4 pts / forecast: 51.2 pts / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
RatingDog's services PMI for August edged up from multi-month lows. The sector benefitted from resilient domestic consumer demand, a fourth consecutive month of employment gains, rising input cost inflation from fuel, materials and wages, and stronger business optimism as firms plan expansion. Analysts expect some moderation in September, which could weigh on oil and the yuan.
Sept 30, 08:00 / Japan / Housing starts in August / prev.: 18.6% / actual: 8.2% / forecast: 7.0% / USD/JPY – up
Year-on-year housing starts growth in July slowed but remained positive for the fourth month. Indicators included restrained growth in owner-occupied housing (+0.4%) and slower rental sector growth (+10.0%), continued strong commercial housing construction (+14.6%), and declines in prefabricated homes (-6.9%) and "two-by-four" builds (-8.5%). Markets expect a slowdown in starts in August. Cooling construction would weaken the yen and lift USD/JPY.
Sept 30, 09:00 / Germany / Retail sales in August / prev.: 0.6% / actual: -2.5% / forecast: -1.0% / EUR/USD – up
German retail sales fell year-on-year in July, remaining well below the long-run average (+0.48%) due to subdued household spending. Analysts expect a moderation of the retail decline in August. A slower drop in retail turnover would support the euro and push EUR/USD higher.
Sept 30, 09:00 / Germany / Import prices in August / prev.: 6.1% / actual: 6.8% / forecast: 7.7% / EUR/USD – up
German import prices jumped 6.8% in July, the largest increase since late 2022, driven by surging energy costs (+26.4%), higher capital goods inflation (+3.5%), and sharp rises in non-ferrous metals (+26.0%), precious metals (+25.1%) and copper (+33.3%). Markets expect further acceleration in August. Rising imported cost pressures would support the euro and lift EUR/USD.
Sept 30, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Nationwide house price index for September (leading) / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.6% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – down
Annual UK house price growth in August was 1.6%. The housing market was affected by geopolitical uncertainty and energy prices, income growth outpacing house prices, and a local monthly rise of 0.2% after July's dip.
Analysts expect a cooling market in September. Softening housing would weigh on the pound and push GBP/USD lower.
Sept 30, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Q2 GDP (final) / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 0.9% / forecast: 1.2% / GBP/USD – up
The UK economy showed acceleration in Q2 on a year-on-year basis, supported by: 1.5% growth in services (ICT and consulting), a 2.7% rise in business investment and 0.8% in capital spending, a 1.0% pick-up in household consumption and 1.4% in government spending. Analysts expect activity to strengthen in Q3; a stronger outlook should support the pound.
Sept 30, 11:00 / Germany / Change in unemployed (September) / prev.: 2.993 mln / actual: 2.993 mln / forecast: 3.00 mln / EUR/USD – down
German unemployment rose by 4,000 in August, remaining just under 3 million. Labour market conditions show a broadly stable employment picture despite a modest rise in jobseekers. Analysts expect a rise in unemployment in September. Increasing labour market strain would weigh on the euro and push EUR/USD down.
Sept 30, 15:00 / Germany / CPI (prelim.) for September / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 2.9% / forecast: 3.2% / EUR/USD – up
Annual consumer inflation in Germany accelerated to 2.9% in August, a spring-time high. Drivers included a 10.5% jump in energy costs (auto fuel +27.7%, fuel oil +49.6%), slower services inflation (2.8%) and food inflation (0.1%), and core inflation steady at 2.4%. Markets expect further upside in September; stronger price pressures would support the euro.
Sept 30, 15:15 / US / ADP employment change for September / prev.: 46k / actual: 38k / forecast: 72k / USDX – up
Private sector payroll growth for August slowed to the weakest pace of the year. The picture included job losses in manufacturing (-17k) and professional services (-16k), gains in education and healthcare (+45k) and construction (+12k), large company hiring (+34k) versus weak small business gains (+3k), and steady wage growth amid inflation and AI. Markets expect a marked acceleration in private hiring in September. A rebound in payrolls would support the dollar.
Sept 30, 15:30 / US / Q2 GDP (final) / prev.: 0.5% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 1.5% / USDX – down
US GDP growth was revised to 1.5% annualized for Q2, in line with preliminary estimates. Drivers included a 3.4% increase in consumer spending (goods +4.3%, services +3.1%), a 7.0% rise in business investment driven by AI-related equipment demand, a 1.3% rebound in residential investment after five quarters of decline, and a drag from lower government spending (-1.0%) and faster import growth (+12.5%). Analysts expect a slowdown next quarter; weaker activity would weigh on the dollar.
Sept 30, 15:30 / US / Personal income (m/m) for August / prev.: 0.2% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.4% / USDX – volatile
Personal income rose 0.4% in July, supported by private sector payrolls, expanded Medicaid/Medicare transfers, higher income from assets and dividends, and a 0.5% rise in disposable income. Stable income growth would support consumer spending and the dollar.
Sept 30, 15:30 / US / Personal spending (m/m) for August / prev.: 0.3% / actual: 0.2% / forecast: 0.8% / USDX – up
Personal spending rose 0.2% in July, with higher outlays for financial services, insurance, healthcare and utilities (+$86.2bn) offset by lower spending on gasoline, autos, furniture and leisure goods (-$49.9bn). Analysts expect a stronger pickup in August; higher consumer demand would support the dollar.
Sept 30, 15:30 / US / GDP deflator (PCE) YoY for August / prev.: 4.1% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 3.7% / USDX – volatile
The PCE price index held at 3.7% YoY in July, above the long-run norm of 3.29%, indicating persistent price pressure. Markets expect PCE to remain at 3.7% in August. Elevated inflation would support the dollar and add volatility.
Sept 30, 16:45 / US / Chicago business barometer (Sep) / prev.: 57.6 pts / actual: 47.1 pts / forecast: 46.9 pts / USDX – down
Chicago region business activity plunged back into contraction in August. The report showed a sharp drop in new orders (-15.4) and renewed production declines (-8.8), continued lengthening of supplier delivery times (19th month of growth), a small employment uptick (+4.3) and a jump in input prices (+3.8) to the highest since early 2022. Markets expect further weakening; continued industrial weakness would weigh on the dollar.
Sept 30, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil stocks for week to Sept 18 / prev.: -0.640 mln bbl / actual: 2.969 mln bbl / forecast: -0.701 mln bbl / Brent – up
US commercial crude inventories rose by 2.969 million barrels for the week, with a 2.266 million barrel build at Cushing, refinery runs down by 519k b/d, gasoline stocks down 1.686 million barrels and distillates down 0.4 million barrels, while net crude imports rose by 369k b/d. Analysts expect inventories to draw next week. Lower stockpiles would support Brent prices.
Scheduled speeches and central-bank appearances (selected):
Comments from these central bank officials typically move FX markets as they may signal future policy paths.
