WTI crude faces volatility amid rising US inventories and geopolitical risks

WTI crude prices are fluctuating around $83.30 early in the US session, showing volatility after approaching nearly two-week highs. The market is under dual pressure: persistent supply risks due to the threat of Strait of Hormuz closure and an unexpected build-up in US crude inventories. Investors are also closely monitoring US inflation data.

Geopolitics remains the key factor: Iran insists the strait will remain closed until its demands are met (cessation of hostilities, asset releases, and compensation), with tensions underscored by incidents, including a vessel attack and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea. At the same time, diplomatic efforts continue: Pakistan has held talks with Tehran and describes an agreed memorandum as a potential "blueprint for peace." Follow the link for more details.

Citi raises S&P 500 earnings forecast to $365

Citi raised its S&P 500 earnings forecast for the year to $365 (from $350) following the quarter, while maintaining its year-end index target of 8,100. The bank believes fundamental factors largely support the market: the broadening of the market has already begun and should continue as investors price in a lower probability of further rate hikes.

Reaching the 8,100 level, according to strategists, depends on a combination of market broadening, soft landing expectations, tech reset, and restored confidence in AI fundamentals. At the same time, Citi warns: quarterly earnings surprises have been modest, and a significant portion of the rise in consensus expectations is due to the revaluation of large-cap stocks, so despite the strength of fundamentals, caution should be maintained. Follow the link for more details.

IBM and OpenAI: large-scale corporate deployment of GPT-5.6

IBM shares rose by 1.1% in pre-market trading following the announcement of a major strategic partnership with OpenAI: GPT-5.6, Codex, and ChatGPT Work will be integrated into the IBM Consulting Advantage corporate platform. The deal targets large-scale deployments in finance, government, telecom, and retail, with solutions to be deployed directly at client sites.

To this end, IBM is establishing an OpenAI Practice unit with thousands of certified consultants and engineers and will deploy specialized teams to projects in regulated industries. Three priorities have been identified in the partnership: migrating legacy processes to AI-ready operations, application modernization and development acceleration, and joint cybersecurity initiatives. Follow the link for more details.