Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A significant number of macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Friday, primarily focusing on the business activity indexes in the services and manufacturing sectors for July in Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States. We cannot say this data will definitely not provoke a market reaction, as the market is currently paying more attention to technical factors; however, a reaction may still occur. It is just likely to be weak and not affect the overall situation significantly. Additionally, a retail sales report will be released today in the UK.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

From the fundamental events on Friday, only the speech of European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane is worth noting. However, what significance will this speech have when the ECB meeting took place just yesterday, along with a press conference with Christine Lagarde, and the market received all the necessary information it traditionally ignored? We believe that Lane's speech will have no significance for traders, and he will not provide the market with anything new or important.

The geopolitical background continues to shift in an undesirable direction. Another ceasefire has been breached, and once again, the US and Iran have resumed hostilities. Currently, no negotiations are taking place. Donald Trump continues to strike Iran, and Tehran is responding, with a full blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait potentially being implemented at any moment. Yemeni Houthis have already announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia, likely anticipating a blockade of the Red Sea. The situation is increasingly tense, provoking a new rise in oil prices, which have already surpassed $100 per barrel.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, the euro may continue to move within the sideways channel of 1.1377-1.1461, while the British pound will likely remain within a downward trend. The euro can be traded today from the area of 1.1363-1.1377, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3319-1.3331. Volatility in both currency pairs may decrease again.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.