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30.04.2026 08:18 AM
This was Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed chair. His term expires on May 15, but he will remain on the Board of Governors. His remarks turned into a manifesto defending the institution's independence from attacks by Donald Trump. "I believe Kevin Warsh when he says he will resist pressure. The Fed's independence is threatened now, but we refuse to be a tool to pursue goals beyond our mandate. We will stay the course until inflation returns to 2%," Powell said. He acknowledged that the Fed has been forced to go to court to defend its right to make data-driven decisions rather than follow political slogans.
The central bank openly recognized that events in the Strait of Hormuz are the main source of uncertainty. Inflation is "falling with difficulty," and the regulator believes the energy price spike has not yet peaked. The Fed's key conclusions for May 2026 are as follows:
Jerome Powell left the door open to any scenario: "We have the capacity to change the course of monetary policy in either direction." He warned that the next two months could radically alter the situation. Inside the Committee, the number of members who see a rate hike as just as likely as a cut is growing. The Fed is moving to a "wait and see" mode, handing the reins to Kevin Warsh at a moment when the energy shock in the Persian Gulf is beginning to materially affect American households. The current policy is considered "sufficiently tight," but can the new Fed chair maintain this fragile balance, or will he act under Trump's direction?
Will it be Kevin Warsh, who still must be confirmed by the Senate? His appearance before the relevant committee showed he intends not merely to replace Powell but to radically reshape the Fed's operations. For example, he plans to abandon the practice of "pre-announcing" policy direction, arguing the Fed should act faster and be less predictable. He also criticized the PCE index as imperfect and proposed using alternative data sources to measure real inflation. He previously stated he does not intend to coordinate policy with the White House. Barron's experts, however, doubt Warsh will be given free rein — and rising oil constrains any reformer's hands.
The regulator's decision to keep the rate at 3.5%–3.75% triggered an immediate, though moderate, correction. The S&P 500 widened its decline to 0.3%, and the industrial Dow Jones lost 0.8%. The main drama unfolded in forecasts: the CME FedWatch tool now shows that the probability that current rates will remain in place through July 2027 exceeds 50%. Investors have effectively resigned themselves to the view that the "era of high rates" is here to stay. The April meeting came against very uncomfortable data:
AI skepticism and "islands of stability"
Ahead of earnings, the tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon) with a combined market capitalization of $11 trillion fell 2% on concern that OpenAI has reportedly failed to meet its targets, casting doubt on the payback for massive AI-infrastructure spending. At the same time, Visa (+10%) and AbbVie (+3%) delivered strong quarterly results and became defensive havens. The defense sector unexpectedly weakened as investors worry that higher oil prices will "eat into" procurement and logistics budgets. In effect, the market is holding its breath. Next week — when the largest tech companies and oil majors report — will show whether the US economy can still grow with a closed Strait of Hormuz and a divided Fed.
A real drama unfolded in court on April 29, 2026: Elon Musk testified for the second day in a row against the OpenAI co-founders. The billionaire was blunt, describing his $38 million investment as "free money" that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman used to create a commercial monster valued at more than $800 billion. According to Musk, his involvement in OpenAI went through three stages:
OpenAI's version, presented by lawyer William Savitt, offered a mirror image. In their view, Musk was not a "naive patron" but had sought from the outset to turn OpenAI into a commercial entity — on the condition of absolute, unilateral control. "They simply refused to hand the keys to AI to one person," Savitt said, hinting at Musk's alleged dictatorial ambitions. Musk admitted he had wanted a controlling stake at the outset as the lead donor but claimed he expected his share to dilute as new investors arrived. The sticking point became a 2017 letter from Ilya Sutskever expressing concern that Musk's ownership structure would kill the spirit of openness.
Musk says the "point of no return" came with Microsoft's investments. He called the $13 billion in Microsoft funding (initially $1 billion in 2019, then another $12 billion) incompatible with the concept of charity. Asked why the suit was filed so late (in 2024), Musk replied with a cutting metaphor: "The premonition that someone might steal your car is not the same as the thought that it's already gone." For OpenAI, the trial is a make-or-break moment: Musk seeks not only compensation but the removal of Altman and Brockman from management and the reversal of the company's restructuring into a commercial entity completed in October 2025.
If Musk wins, OpenAI's plans for one of 2026's largest IPOs will be buried, which would be convenient for Musk's own IPO plans, possibly scheduled for June. SpaceX has included a provision in its IPO paperwork that no one can remove Elon Musk as CEO or chairman of the board without his consent. Currently, OpenAI Foundation owns 26% of shares and Microsoft 27%. The court's verdict could reshape ownership maps across the AI industry, creating a dangerous precedent for nonprofit startups that pivot to profit.
30 April, 02:50 / Japan / Retail sales (Mar) / prev.: 1.8% / actual: -0.2% / forecast: 0.8% / USD/JPY – down Consumer activity in Japan fell unexpectedly by 0.2% year-on-year in February 2026, fully erasing January's rise. Rising household costs weighed on the sector:
Despite Tokyo's fiscal support, shoppers remain cautious, although electronics, pharmaceuticals, and cars still show moderate gains. Positive sales momentum would support the yen.
30 April, 02:50 / Japan / Industrial production (Mar) / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 3.3% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's industrial sector showed very weak growth of 0.4% year-on-year in February 2026. Current output growth is well below analysts' ambitious forecasts and far below the long-run average (4.39%). Stagnation at the industrial core amid global uncertainty highlights the fragility of the recovery. A material upside surprise in March would support the yen.
30 April, 04:30 / China / NBS manufacturing PMI (Apr, preliminary) / prev.: 49.0 / actual: 50.4 / forecast: 50.1 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up China's official PMI returned to expansion in March 2026, rising to 50.4 — the highest in a year. Drivers of the rebound include:
However, the positive picture is clouded by an inflation shock: expensive oil and metals pushed input and output prices to four-year highs. Rising costs amid ongoing employment cuts weigh on the yuan and pressure Brent.
30 April, 04:45 / China / Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Apr, preliminary) / prev.: 52.1 / actual: 50.8 / forecast: 51.0 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
The private Caixin PMI recorded a slowdown in China's manufacturing expansion to 50.8. Despite a four-month expansion cycle and a five-year high in job creation, the sector faces sharp input-cost inflation — commodity prices hit 2022 peaks due to Middle East instability. Logistics disruptions caused the largest delivery delays in three years, yet producers remain optimistic thanks to state investment. Continued private-sector momentum would strengthen the yuan and lift Brent.
30 April, 09:00 / Germany / Retail sales (Mar) / prev.: 1.0% / actual: 0.7% / forecast: 0.5% / EUR/USD – down
German retail turnover rose 0.7% year-on-year in February 2026, slowing from January. Growth remains around historical averages, reflecting a weak propensity to consume amid high uncertainty. Loss of retail momentum versus the prior month will weigh on the euro.
30 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / House price index (Apr) / prev.: 1.0% / actual: 2.2% / forecast: 2.2% / GBP/USD – volatile
UK house prices rose 2.2% year-on-year in March 2026, the fastest pace since last autumn. Month-on-month prices jumped 0.9%, well above the 0.6% forecast. Chief economist Robert Gardner noted that, despite the bounce, the Middle East conflict poses downside risks. With energy costs rising, markets have repriced three hikes this year instead of expected cuts. The contradiction between higher prices and costlier credit will keep the pound volatile.
30 April, 11:00 / Germany / GDP q/q (Q1, preliminary) / prev.: 0.3% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: 0.3% / EUR/USD – down
Germany's economy expanded 0.4% q/q in Q4 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and slightly accelerating from the prior period. For 2025 as a whole, GDP rose only 0.2%, indicating a very slow and fragile recovery after a 0.5% contraction in 2024. Continued low growth in the bloc's largest economy will weigh on the euro.
30 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / GDP q/q (Q1, preliminary) / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 0.9% / EUR/USD – down Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 1.2% y/y in Q4 2025, the weakest annual pace in a year. Slowing affected major components:
Exports were the main driver, though external trade momentum moderated. Spain grew 2.6%; Germany only 0.4%. Slower growth will pressure the euro.
30 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Headline CPI (Apr) / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.9% / EUR/USD – down
Headline inflation in the eurozone was revised up to 2.6% y/y in March 2026 — the highest since July 2024. The main driver was energy, which rose 5.1% amid the Iran conflict. Month-on-month CPI jumped 1.3% — the sharpest increase since October 2022. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.3%, and food inflation slowed to 2.4%. Inflationary pressure intensified across major economies (Germany 2.8%, Spain 3.4%). Rising inflation, driven mainly by volatile energy amid slowing GDP, weighs on the euro.
30 April, 14:00, 14:30 / United Kingdom / Bank Rate decision, press conference / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 3.75% / GBP/USD – volatile
The Bank of England is expected to hold the policy rate at 3.75% at its April 2026 meeting. The BoE faces critical uncertainty: the Iran conflict has reversed disinflation trends and triggered another energy price shock. Governor Andrew Bailey and the MPC must weigh inflation risks against a potential downturn in activity. Balancing these forces will keep the pound volatile.
30 April, 15:15, 15:45 / Eurozone / ECB rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.15% / actual: 2.15% / forecast: 2.15% / EUR/USD – volatile
The European Central Bank is also likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.15%. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel have said the bank will not rush further tightening until the impact of the Iran war is assessed. Yet March's CPI acceleration to 2.6% due to energy has led markets to price in three hikes this year. While the first hike is expected in June, the lack of clear signals amid the geopolitical crisis means high euro volatility.
30 April, 15:30 / Canada / GDP m/m (Feb) / prev.: 0.2% / actual: 0.1% / forecast: 0.2% / USD/CAD – down Canada's GDP is expected to rise 0.2% in February 2026. Earlier growth was driven mainly by:
which offset a -1.4% decline in manufacturing. Services showed little momentum — retail and finance gains were offset by logistics and wholesale weakness due to extreme weather. A stronger-than-expected recovery would support the Canadian dollar.
30 April, 15:30 / US / GDP q/q (Q1, preliminary) / prev.: 4.4% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 2.3% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up
The preliminary estimate shows US GDP growing 2.3% annualized in Q1 2026 — a sharp rebound after a weak Q4 2025 (0.5%) when activity was hit by a government shutdown. Corporate investment in equipment is expected to drive growth while consumer spending moderates. A large pickup in activity versus the prior period supports the dollar.
30 April, 15:30 / US / Personal income (Mar m/m) / prev.: 0.4% / actual: -0.1% / forecast: 0.3% / USDX – up
US personal income fell unexpectedly 0.1% in February 2026, the first decline since May 2025. The drop was driven by a sharp fall in dividend income and reduced current transfers, partly offset by wage growth and government farm support payments. Real disposable income fell about 0.5%, raising concerns about consumer strength and supporting the dollar amid risk repricing.
30 April, 15:30 / US / Personal spending (Mar m/m) / prev.: 0.3% / actual: 0.5% / forecast: 0.9% / USDX – up
US consumer spending rose 0.5% in February to $103.2 bn, driven by demand for durables — notably autos and parts (+$32.6 bn) — and by healthcare and financial services. Real spending rose only 0.1%, indicating much of the nominal increase reflects price rises rather than volume. Confirmation of the 0.9% forecast would further strengthen the dollar.
30 April, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 208k / actual: 214k / forecast: 215k / USDX – down
US initial unemployment claims for the week ending 18 April rose to 214k. Despite a small increase, claims remain below last year's averages, supporting the Fed's view of limited layoffs. Attention was paid to federal employee claims amid shutdown concerns; those actually eased slightly. A modest rise in claims could be seen as labour market weakness and pressure the dollar.
30 April, 15:30 / US / GDP deflator (Q1) / prev.: 3.7% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 3.8% / USDX – up
The US GDP deflator remained stable at 3.7% y/y for Q4 2025, matching the prior period and underscoring persistent price pressure in the production side of the economy. The index reached a record 130.62 points, highlighting accumulated inflationary pressure. Persistently high GDP inflation relative to a 3.8% forecast supports the dollar.
30 April, 16:45 / US / Chicago Business Barometer (Apr) / prev.: 57.7 / actual: 52.8 / forecast: 55.3 / USDX – up
The Chicago Business Barometer retreated from four-year highs to 52.8 in March 2026. While still in expansion territory (>50), the pace slowed. New orders and production continue to rise, but manufacturers report staff cuts and the largest backlog of orders since 2022. Supplier price acceleration is a worry. A stronger reading would support the dollar.
1 May
1 May, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 51.0 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026. While production may continue to decline, the pace of deterioration is expected to slow. New orders, employment and inventories showed moderate declines previously, indicating unstable demand. Delivery times are forecast to lengthen at the fastest pace since mid-2022 due to delays on key sea routes. Fuel and freight price rises have pushed input-cost inflation to a nearly four-year high. A final print of 51.0 would strengthen the Australian dollar.
1 May
1 May, 02:00 / Australia / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 49.8 / forecast: 51.0 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026. While production may continue to decline, the pace of deterioration is expected to slow. New orders, employment and inventories showed moderate declines previously, indicating unstable demand. Delivery times are forecast to lengthen at the fastest pace since mid-2022 due to delays on key sea routes. Fuel and freight price rises have pushed input-cost inflation to a nearly four-year high. A final print of 51.0 would strengthen the Australian dollar.
1 May, 02:30 / Japan / Tokyo CPI (Apr) / prev.: 1.5% / actual: 1.4% / forecast: 1.4% / USD/JPY – volatile
Tokyo's core inflation slowed to 1.4% y/y in March — a four-year low. Historically, Tokyo CPI averaged 2.39% between 1971 and 2026, peaking at 24.0% in 1974. April is forecast at 1.4%. Confirmation would signal continued cooling of price pressures in the capital and keep the yen volatile.
1 May, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 53.0 / actual: 51.6 / forecast: 54.9 / USD/JPY – down
Japan's manufacturing PMI was 51.6 in March. Output is expected to expand most aggressively since February 2014 as firms boost production amid fears of supply shortages due to the Middle East war. New and export orders may accelerate in April, spurring hiring. However, delivery times are set to lengthen sharply, and input-cost inflation is expected to accelerate due to logistics. Confirmation of a 54.9 print would indicate a strong industrial surge and support the yen.
1 May, 04:30 / Australia / Producer prices (Q1) / prev.: 3.5% / actual: 3.5% / forecast: 4.1% / AUD/USD – up
Australia's producer prices rose 3.5% y/y at the end of 2025. The long-run average since 1999 is 2.49%, with a peak of 6.40% in 2022. If Q1 data match the forecast, it would signal a durable base for consumer inflation growth in 2026 amid global shocks and support the Australian dollar.
1 May, 09:30 / Australia / RBA commodity prices (Apr) / prev.: 4.9% / actual: 12.8% / forecast: 18.0% / AUD/USD – up The RBA's commodity price index jumped to 12.8% in March — the largest increase since early 2023 — driven by price rises in:
April is forecast to accelerate to 18.0%. If confirmed, this would be the eighth consecutive monthly rise across agricultural and industrial commodities and would support the AUD.
1 May, 11:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 51.7 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 53.6 / GBP/USD – up
The UK manufacturing sector closed March at a PMI of 51.0. April is forecast to jump to 53.6 — the strongest rise since May 2022 — as producers accelerate output amid stock building for geopolitical risk. April may show the first employment pick-up since Oct 2024, though delivery times and input costs will rise. A confirmed beat would support the pound.
1 May, 16:30 / Canada / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 50.4 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 50.0 / USD/CAD – up
Canada's manufacturing PMI was 51.0 in March. Despite the temporary uptick, the sector is showing signs of stagnation: falling new orders and pressure from US tariffs on exports. April is expected to retreat to a neutral 50.0, ending a two-month improvement. Continued uncertainty from the conflict and tariff worries will weigh on business confidence and the Canadian dollar.
1 May, 16:45 / US / S&P Global manufacturing PMI (Apr, final) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 54.0 / USDX – up
US manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in March 2026. April is forecast to post the largest improvement since May 2022, reflecting:
Previously, inventory accumulation supported the sector, but delivery times lengthened due to Middle East constraints. Ongoing labour shortages and the first employment drop since July 2025 are risks. A confirmed large beat would support the dollar.
1 May, 17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing PMI (Apr) / prev.: 52.6 / actual: 52.4 / forecast: 52.7 / USDX – up
The ISM manufacturing index was 52.4 in March. March was the first month when business respondents treated the Iran war as a critical uncertainty factor. April is expected to show another uptick, though inflationary pressure and geopolitical risk will weigh on sentiment (64% of March comments were pessimistic). A 52.7 print would support the dollar.
1 May, 17:00 / US / ISM manufacturing employment (Apr) / prev.: 48.8 / actual: 48.7 / forecast: 49.0 / USDX – up
Employment in US manufacturing remains weak. The index fell to 48.7 in March — marking the 30th consecutive month in contraction. Hiring was very limited across sectors except:
Manufacturers are expected to continue staff adjustments in response to volatile demand and the Middle East conflict, which would support the dollar if employment improves to the forecast level.
30 April, 14:30 / United Kingdom / Speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD 30 April, 15:45 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
Speeches by senior central bankers are also scheduled on these days. Their comments typically cause FX volatility because they can signal future policy intentions.
